Confidence levels and likelihood terms in IPCC reports: a survey of experts from different scientific disciplines

Abstract Scientific assessments, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), inform policymakers and public about state of scientific evidence related uncertainties. We studied how experts from different disciplines who were authors IPCC reports, interpret uncertainty language recommended in Guidance Note for Lead Authors Fifth Assessment Report Consistent Treatment Uncertainties . This guidance note discusses to use confidence levels describe quality agreement, well likelihood terms probability intervals associated with climate variables. find that (1) physical science more familiar than other experts, they followed it often; (2) experts’ increased perceptions agreement ; (3) estimated variables wider when presented “medium confidence” rather “high seen context sentences out context, only partly note. Our findings recommendations communications evidence,